BACK THIS LORD IN BETFAIR HURDLE
Newbury is on thankfully for jump racing fans this Saturday. Following a midweek deluge the ground has turned heavy so the emphasis will be on class and stamina in the Betfair hurdle.
The race is as competitive as ever but a bit short on higher rated handicappers this season. It has been a few years since horses rated less than 120 have made the cut for this valuable race. I’d recommend looking for the winner from those rated 130+ with proven soft/heavy ground form and who stay well.
Nicky Henderson has withdrawn two of his four runners this morning due to the testing ground, Luccia & Under Control are out.
The form of the Greatwood hurdle at the Cheltenham November meeting is red hot. Lookaway finished second to Iberico Lord that day and backed it up with a second here in the Challow Hurdle over the Christmas period. Third placed Luccia went to Ascot and won nicely on good ground with the Greatwood Hurdle winner Iberico Lord not running to form. The fifth placed Nemean Lion finished second up in trip in the Lanzarote Hurdle while sixth placed Go Dante won at Cheltenham on trials day.
The handicapper raised Iberico Lord 8lbs to his current mark of 134 following his Greatwood Hurdle win. That looks more than fair now with all the placed runners gone up in the handicapper ratings subsequently. We can forgive Iberico Lord his Ascot flop as the ground was quick and he will be more at home on the heavy ground at Newbury and is the choice of stable jockey Nico de Boinville.
Knickerbockerglory is overpriced as I would have had him at half his current price. We had him onside when he destroyed a field of handicappers at Ascot on soft ground last November. The runner up, Altobelli boosted the form with a cracking run to finish a close third behind Luccia in a premier handicap at Ascot just before Christmas. There is a 6lb swing in the ratings between Knickerbockerglory and Altobelli.
I truly believe Knickerbockerglory will improve again on proper heavy ground. He ran a little below his best in the Greatwood Hurdle won by Iberico Lord and maybe that race came too soon following his Ascot success. As I mentioned above the form of the Greatwood hurdle is red hot. Knickerbockerglory has been freshened up for this race and the ground has come in his favour. Tristan Durrell has ridden him in his recent three races, so I have no concerns he is not ridden by Harry Skelton.
A couple that were on my final shortlist were Lookaway, Spirit D’anjou, Faivoir & Altobelli.
Newbury 3:15
0.5 point each way Iberico Lord 6/1 William Hill 7 places else 6/1 generally, 6 places.
0.5 point each way Knickerbockerglory 20/1 William Hill 7 places else 20/1 generally, 6 places.
Past Results
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