Erskine to Lord it over rivals
Navan has passed this mornings inspection so thankfully we have some jump racing to watch on ITV racing this afternoon.
It will be mixed action on ITV racing with flat from Lingfield & jumps from Navan with both Haydock & Ascot lost to the weather. The Clarence house chase has been rescheduled for Cheltenham trials day next Saturday. However, the big clash between El Fabilo & Jonbon will have to wait until the festival in march as El Fabiolo is waiting for the Dublin racing festival to run next.
I am surprised that Lord Erskine is available at such a big price having run so well on his last two runs over hurdles. He set a fierce pace up front at Naas in the Brown Lad handicap in November, only giving way after the final hurdle when ridden by JJ Slevin. Last time out he ran in another listed hurdle (Tara Hurdle) and was ridden more patiently in behind the leaders.
Lord Erskine came with what looked a winner run over the final hurdle but found Harvard Guy too strong in the finish. Both Harvard Guy and Lord Erskine raced off the same rating of 119 in the Tara handicap hurdle. The handicapper has hit Harvard Guy with a big hike in the ratings to a mark of 131 and he will find life tougher carrying top weight of 11-12 tomorrow.
As an 11 year old the handicapper was lenient on Lord Erskine with a 2lb hike to his handicap mark. That leaves Lord Erskine a huge 10lbs better off against Harvard Guy and I think he will reverse placings on his preferred testing ground.
Gordon Elliott is the trainer to follow at his local course. Fortunedefortunata looks like his best chance of his two runners. The issue with Fortunedefortunata is the trip as most his racing has been done over two miles and he finished down the field over 2m4f at Punchestown on his only run over this trip. I think he is poor value at current odds running over 2m4f around a stiff course on testing ground.
Navan 1:55
1 point each way Lord Erskine 11/2 Bet365 else 5/1 William Hill & 888sport, all 4 places.
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